The EPA is a poster child for out of control bureaucratic stupidity. Hopefully the Supremes knock them on their ass and drive a stake through the heart of Chevron deference at the same time, forcing Congress (elected idiots) to make laws instead of foisting the job off on agencies like EPA (unelected idiots).
The average American has been taught that greedy polluting energy companies are just making this stuff up. Sadly if the system goes down and it takes 3-4 weeks to bring it back up they will realize how deep a hole we have dug and how important these systems are to everyday life.
Good point, Brent. I asked my students on their final exam to list 3 things they didn't know before they took my course. The first item on most of their lists was how fragile the power grid is (ERCOT here in Texas). I had asked them on the first day of class where the electricity came from that they plug into, and none had any idea. The lack of energy education is a sad reality. Ed
Satish, all young people have been brainwashed their entire lives to believe wind and solar are great. At least by the end of my course, they know that wind and solar are the reason why our power grids are unstable. We start every class by looking at the ERCOT Grid Dashboard, so they have witnessed wind and solar failures with their own eyes! Ed
Are they being brainwashed or has the idea of critical thinking been lost during their education, even on engineers and other professionals?
Maybe how the electric gets to their light bulb just wasn't important enough to even think about, when in reality it is the most important thing in life to think about and understand! After all we are a modern industrial society and how that society works should be part of the basics.
There again they are not taught about money, how to balance a check book, do a budget and how all that works either. Or the value of an honest days work for an honest days pay, or entrepreneurship! So you begin to wonder about the value of a modern education and how that should be evolving with the times!
Glad you are working to educate them on energy and how to keep the lights on in Texas.
Ed, I totally agree with you. The younger generation is completely brainwashed. I understand your predicament while you are teaching energy! keep up your work and truth will come out when we freeze! We are left with 158 coal plants from 1000+ in 2014. For the sake of reliability, coal plants need to make up at least 20 to 33% of asset mix for stable base load generation. They do very well in extreme weather conditions and even back-up nuclear during their maintenance.
The reliability curve of our grid, in simple terms, is a function of output versus demand, hour by hour.
When the sun goes down output is zero. When cloud cover moves in or fixed arrays don't follow the sun, output shrinks. When the wind doesn't blow, blows not enough, or too much, output drops, even to zero. Continuing to remove reliable 24 hr. base load eventually takes that output function to zero. The grid only fails when demand exceeds output. Doesn't require "zero".
Great points, Jim. Few people have ever heard of the frequency of the grid. I wrote an article a year or so ago saying that during winter storm Uri, the ERCOT grid was 4 minutes and 37 seconds from total collapse. ERCOT instituted massive rolling blackouts and pulled the grid back from the brink of failure. ERCOT plan for a black start is 8 days but it could take up to a month. The humanitarian nightmare that would ensue is hard to imagine. Thanks for the comment, Jim. Ed
The ultimate stupidity of these two rules is the fact that all of the intermittent wind and solar installations are backed up by…….NATURAL GAS powered turbine peaker plants!
Dave, you raise a very good point here. The "operational" reliability of renewables (solar, wind) including battery storage is approximately 33% (0.33). The operations reliability is based on the capacity factor, which is in low 20 % and 30% for solar and wind, respectively. This means that they are available at most 33% of the time in a year (0.33*365 days = 120 days). The battery is charged with excess power from solar and wind during the period when the wind blows and sun shines. With no gas backups (total decarbonization), the nation will suffer (365-120 = 240 days) of rolling blackouts. This is the future of "decarbonized" future unless the liberal class wants to live pastoral lives in their exotic neighborhoods in big urban areas. This is the future! If you want to know more, please watch Professor Simon Michaux from Finland if you want to learn more about this lunacy - Thank you and Merry Christmas! I hope these infants grow up.
Professor Simon Michaux at the University of Florida
The EPA has been out of control, that is, Out of control from common sense, science or what is best for public health and the environment. The EPA is a weaponized alphabet agency that is more aligned with the best interests of China or Russia than with the U.S.A. Best wishes for success in correcting this to President Trump and Lee Zeldin. It is long over due. Here are a couple of my thoughts on 1. The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be, Oct. 2021: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-ek
Although I understand the argument made in this article, I wonder what the negative effects would be had the EPA not started implementing these rules. Sure, the U.S. electric grid would be stable for decades to come but would the environmental impact be too devastating 15-20 years down the line for the EPA to try to reverse? Maybe that is why they are so adamant on making these changes now?
The answer in my opinion, is that the NGOs that influence the EPA are well funded by non-science, un-American interests that also do not have a basic understanding of energy and electricity generation. In other words, part sinister and partly naive or practitioners of green religion.
Sorry to hear that, James, but it is not surprising given that the oil and gas industry is so demonized. I fear for the future for my grandchildren who will live in a world of intermittent power which has many negative implications for their quality of life. Ed
Ed, that is alright the petroleum is boom or bust because it is a commodity driven profession my career went through eight boom bust cycles. Pioneer offered packages to everyone over 55 years of age in 2019 and I had just turned 69 years old, so I took it. I now do GIG environmental consulting, teaching honor science at a Local High School, writing and responded to train and plane down crashes. Oil was good to me spent seven years in college got an MS and just short six hours of the Ph. D, it kept me out of Nam in the early 70s. I have seen parts of the world modern and 3rd world that many people will never see and lived through a FARC guerilla raid on a drilling rig man camp in the Middle Magdelina Valley in Columbia. Along the way I have worked with endangered species, in Alaska used a FLIR camera to locate denning female Polar Bears with cubs, stayed up day and night cleaning ducks and marine sea turtles oiled by marine oil spills and shot at by mad landowners in Oklahoma, HE MISSED. Doing environmental for an oil company one would think it is an oxymoron; it is more like a calling. So much they don't teach you in college like ethics, as I have been asked serval times to look the other way, BUT I NEVER DID and attempted bribe to allow improper disposal of hazardous waste. In the 40 years did none of that as I went to college to be a biologist and I wanted to make the World a better place to live. Ed I much enjoy your writing and your commanding knowledge of the subject. Writers are really nothing more than teachers, explaining history, a glimpse at the future and a path forward. They can be a visionary with just a keyboard at their fingertips. Much regards and MERRY CHRISTMAS, Jim Sherrard
Thanks, James. Thanks for your background story. It sounds like you had a great career with Pioneer and continuing on to do good things. I started my career teaching and then spent over 40 years in the natural gas industry and now enjoy teaching at TCU as a retirement job. I really enjoy writing and appreciate you being a loyal reader and your comments. I hope you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. It looks like 2024 is going to be a VERY interesting year. Ed
Al, lawsuits against the EPA rules are a certainty and I think they will be upheld by the Supreme Court which ruled against Obama's EPA Clean Air Act. Unfortunately, that will take years but hopefully sanity will prevail. Ed
I was just telling my young adult sons the other day that my whole issue with “green energy” it’s that it’s too much, too fast, with no reliable backup. Here in California, of course, the insanity is rampant. They want to mandate all electric vehicles but I’ve heard they’re also imposing moratoriums on adding EV chargers to private homes (forcing people to go pay for charging their cars at a public charging station). The amount of power electric vehicles use to charge up is enormous and strains an already overloaded grid. We need to be building more small nuclear plants and focusing on energy independence. Wind and solar (which I have, thankfully, since SDGE has some of the highest utility rates in the country) are a nice bonuses but should never be considered replacements for natural gas, nuclear, or coal.
I agree, CMG. I call it a forced energy transition without a plan. Forcing all electrified everything while power grids depend on coal and natural gas, while attempting to make direct use of natural gas illegal or very expensive, makes no sense at all. Same for forcing EVs that in effect run on coal and natural gas as you say. The answer is to let markets work and stop trying to centrally plan energy! Ed
Ed, I see the new NSPS Quad O as a mixed bag, but I don't see it shutting down a substantial amount of the US Natural Gas Production. All midstream facilities and gas processing plants are already under find and fix leaks for VOC. Many of your large upstream operators in the major basins are installing VRU on tanks, atmosphere air for value controls, and already have the FLIR staff. and the find and fix. What this will hurt are the fringe 5% strippers the mom and pops that operate several wells. They will need to sell or plug. But I don't see the EPA's Quad O as a player in the stabilization of electrical power generation by the fuel natural gas source. Money would be better spent on winterization of the natural gas fields that feed the electrical generation plants and putting APU at these plants for startup if they go down.
James, the strippers will be hurt for sure and many of those wells will be shut in. Without them, there is not much a market for those wells, so some production will be lost. The compliance costs (monitoring and providing the required information) will be very high for all producers, so some marginal production will be shut down. The important question is whether methane releases are actually something to be concerned about. I am working on an article about it. Thanks for your comments, James! Ed
Ed, the large producers the major basin players already are implementing much of NSPS Quad OOO it is not much different that the Quad O that Trump cancelled in what 2000. The new is the bounty hunting provision and applicability to older grandfathered facilities. Normally NSPS is only applicable ton new construction or major modifications. Now you look at the major players all of them have FLIR department, aerial surveys with FLIR, and find and fix teams. I have to admit in sizing VRU and they were 60,000 a battery. I saw some batteries that were leaking rich high BTU VOC gas through the vent lines and thief hatches, and they paid for themselves with more gas going down the sales line the Gas Processing Plants. Now all new Permian production has the new technology bell and whistles. The old production is being purchased for the lease and the deeper plays shale the vertical wells are plugged and all new wells are horizontal, and all new fully mechanized tank batteries. I grew up in the oil fields of Wyoming this is much different in the last 10 years. Much of the methane leaks now that you read about in the papers are from gas plant blowdowns due to maintenance. It is changing read about green completions.
I think part of the plan is to put small operations out of business, oil and gas, is just one, agriculture an other, then any small manufacturing and distribution and then we will be out poaching for our food before long.
If you have watched the M&A in Permian the last year the mom-and-Pop oil and gas operators are gone. I worked 20 years for Pioneer Natural Resources, and it appears Exxon will close in 2024 and purchase them. Much time and money consolidation tank batteries, installing VRU and directional drilling, leak detection in the Gas Plants. I see your point livestock particular cattle will take a hit you can see the discussion in the Western livestock Journal. Rice farm will get hit.
You are right about the rice farmers, many on the coast have leased to solar. Don't really blame them - the money sounds good and rice farming, all farming is hard work. Many have been duped, and their leases are being sold and resold and they have to renegotiate and get less and less money. I hear lawsuits are pending over that. With over 2 million acres slated for wind and solar installations in the near future in Texas the state will be sadly fragmented, many using the best farm land.
I have known several oil and gas operators over the years and they are long gone along with the jobs, incomes and support for local activities in local communities.
The EPA is a poster child for out of control bureaucratic stupidity. Hopefully the Supremes knock them on their ass and drive a stake through the heart of Chevron deference at the same time, forcing Congress (elected idiots) to make laws instead of foisting the job off on agencies like EPA (unelected idiots).
Well said, Jim! I agree. Ed
The average American has been taught that greedy polluting energy companies are just making this stuff up. Sadly if the system goes down and it takes 3-4 weeks to bring it back up they will realize how deep a hole we have dug and how important these systems are to everyday life.
Good point, Brent. I asked my students on their final exam to list 3 things they didn't know before they took my course. The first item on most of their lists was how fragile the power grid is (ERCOT here in Texas). I had asked them on the first day of class where the electricity came from that they plug into, and none had any idea. The lack of energy education is a sad reality. Ed
Totally agree with you Ed! Even engineers and engineering professors "believe" that renewables are the solution let alone those college kids!
Satish, all young people have been brainwashed their entire lives to believe wind and solar are great. At least by the end of my course, they know that wind and solar are the reason why our power grids are unstable. We start every class by looking at the ERCOT Grid Dashboard, so they have witnessed wind and solar failures with their own eyes! Ed
Are they being brainwashed or has the idea of critical thinking been lost during their education, even on engineers and other professionals?
Maybe how the electric gets to their light bulb just wasn't important enough to even think about, when in reality it is the most important thing in life to think about and understand! After all we are a modern industrial society and how that society works should be part of the basics.
There again they are not taught about money, how to balance a check book, do a budget and how all that works either. Or the value of an honest days work for an honest days pay, or entrepreneurship! So you begin to wonder about the value of a modern education and how that should be evolving with the times!
Glad you are working to educate them on energy and how to keep the lights on in Texas.
Merry Christmas to you and your family.
Ed, I totally agree with you. The younger generation is completely brainwashed. I understand your predicament while you are teaching energy! keep up your work and truth will come out when we freeze! We are left with 158 coal plants from 1000+ in 2014. For the sake of reliability, coal plants need to make up at least 20 to 33% of asset mix for stable base load generation. They do very well in extreme weather conditions and even back-up nuclear during their maintenance.
The reliability curve of our grid, in simple terms, is a function of output versus demand, hour by hour.
When the sun goes down output is zero. When cloud cover moves in or fixed arrays don't follow the sun, output shrinks. When the wind doesn't blow, blows not enough, or too much, output drops, even to zero. Continuing to remove reliable 24 hr. base load eventually takes that output function to zero. The grid only fails when demand exceeds output. Doesn't require "zero".
Great points, Jim. Few people have ever heard of the frequency of the grid. I wrote an article a year or so ago saying that during winter storm Uri, the ERCOT grid was 4 minutes and 37 seconds from total collapse. ERCOT instituted massive rolling blackouts and pulled the grid back from the brink of failure. ERCOT plan for a black start is 8 days but it could take up to a month. The humanitarian nightmare that would ensue is hard to imagine. Thanks for the comment, Jim. Ed
The ultimate stupidity of these two rules is the fact that all of the intermittent wind and solar installations are backed up by…….NATURAL GAS powered turbine peaker plants!
EPA = Everything Possibly Asinine
Right on, Kevin! Love it--Everything Possibly Asinine. Ed
It increases the fixed and variable costs leading to increase in LCOE! So this is equitable!
Of course!
Why didn’t I think of that?
Dave, you raise a very good point here. The "operational" reliability of renewables (solar, wind) including battery storage is approximately 33% (0.33). The operations reliability is based on the capacity factor, which is in low 20 % and 30% for solar and wind, respectively. This means that they are available at most 33% of the time in a year (0.33*365 days = 120 days). The battery is charged with excess power from solar and wind during the period when the wind blows and sun shines. With no gas backups (total decarbonization), the nation will suffer (365-120 = 240 days) of rolling blackouts. This is the future of "decarbonized" future unless the liberal class wants to live pastoral lives in their exotic neighborhoods in big urban areas. This is the future! If you want to know more, please watch Professor Simon Michaux from Finland if you want to learn more about this lunacy - Thank you and Merry Christmas! I hope these infants grow up.
Professor Simon Michaux at the University of Florida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqjsPa8bUaA
The EPA has been out of control, that is, Out of control from common sense, science or what is best for public health and the environment. The EPA is a weaponized alphabet agency that is more aligned with the best interests of China or Russia than with the U.S.A. Best wishes for success in correcting this to President Trump and Lee Zeldin. It is long over due. Here are a couple of my thoughts on 1. The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be, Oct. 2021: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-ek
and 2. What is Endangered, Freedom or Climate: http://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/02/27/what-is-endangered-climate-or-freedom-this-is-the-sub-title-of-the-book-blue-planet-in-green-shackles/
Although I understand the argument made in this article, I wonder what the negative effects would be had the EPA not started implementing these rules. Sure, the U.S. electric grid would be stable for decades to come but would the environmental impact be too devastating 15-20 years down the line for the EPA to try to reverse? Maybe that is why they are so adamant on making these changes now?
The answer in my opinion, is that the NGOs that influence the EPA are well funded by non-science, un-American interests that also do not have a basic understanding of energy and electricity generation. In other words, part sinister and partly naive or practitioners of green religion.
I am 3rd generation oil neither of my two sons went into that profession, it will end with me
Sorry to hear that, James, but it is not surprising given that the oil and gas industry is so demonized. I fear for the future for my grandchildren who will live in a world of intermittent power which has many negative implications for their quality of life. Ed
Ed, that is alright the petroleum is boom or bust because it is a commodity driven profession my career went through eight boom bust cycles. Pioneer offered packages to everyone over 55 years of age in 2019 and I had just turned 69 years old, so I took it. I now do GIG environmental consulting, teaching honor science at a Local High School, writing and responded to train and plane down crashes. Oil was good to me spent seven years in college got an MS and just short six hours of the Ph. D, it kept me out of Nam in the early 70s. I have seen parts of the world modern and 3rd world that many people will never see and lived through a FARC guerilla raid on a drilling rig man camp in the Middle Magdelina Valley in Columbia. Along the way I have worked with endangered species, in Alaska used a FLIR camera to locate denning female Polar Bears with cubs, stayed up day and night cleaning ducks and marine sea turtles oiled by marine oil spills and shot at by mad landowners in Oklahoma, HE MISSED. Doing environmental for an oil company one would think it is an oxymoron; it is more like a calling. So much they don't teach you in college like ethics, as I have been asked serval times to look the other way, BUT I NEVER DID and attempted bribe to allow improper disposal of hazardous waste. In the 40 years did none of that as I went to college to be a biologist and I wanted to make the World a better place to live. Ed I much enjoy your writing and your commanding knowledge of the subject. Writers are really nothing more than teachers, explaining history, a glimpse at the future and a path forward. They can be a visionary with just a keyboard at their fingertips. Much regards and MERRY CHRISTMAS, Jim Sherrard
Thanks, James. Thanks for your background story. It sounds like you had a great career with Pioneer and continuing on to do good things. I started my career teaching and then spent over 40 years in the natural gas industry and now enjoy teaching at TCU as a retirement job. I really enjoy writing and appreciate you being a loyal reader and your comments. I hope you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. It looks like 2024 is going to be a VERY interesting year. Ed
Ed, I think teaching and writing is the secret sauce, bet you are an excellent teacher.
Is there any legal action against the EPA yet so that this can be brought before the supreme court?
Al, lawsuits against the EPA rules are a certainty and I think they will be upheld by the Supreme Court which ruled against Obama's EPA Clean Air Act. Unfortunately, that will take years but hopefully sanity will prevail. Ed
I was just telling my young adult sons the other day that my whole issue with “green energy” it’s that it’s too much, too fast, with no reliable backup. Here in California, of course, the insanity is rampant. They want to mandate all electric vehicles but I’ve heard they’re also imposing moratoriums on adding EV chargers to private homes (forcing people to go pay for charging their cars at a public charging station). The amount of power electric vehicles use to charge up is enormous and strains an already overloaded grid. We need to be building more small nuclear plants and focusing on energy independence. Wind and solar (which I have, thankfully, since SDGE has some of the highest utility rates in the country) are a nice bonuses but should never be considered replacements for natural gas, nuclear, or coal.
I agree, CMG. I call it a forced energy transition without a plan. Forcing all electrified everything while power grids depend on coal and natural gas, while attempting to make direct use of natural gas illegal or very expensive, makes no sense at all. Same for forcing EVs that in effect run on coal and natural gas as you say. The answer is to let markets work and stop trying to centrally plan energy! Ed
Ed, I see the new NSPS Quad O as a mixed bag, but I don't see it shutting down a substantial amount of the US Natural Gas Production. All midstream facilities and gas processing plants are already under find and fix leaks for VOC. Many of your large upstream operators in the major basins are installing VRU on tanks, atmosphere air for value controls, and already have the FLIR staff. and the find and fix. What this will hurt are the fringe 5% strippers the mom and pops that operate several wells. They will need to sell or plug. But I don't see the EPA's Quad O as a player in the stabilization of electrical power generation by the fuel natural gas source. Money would be better spent on winterization of the natural gas fields that feed the electrical generation plants and putting APU at these plants for startup if they go down.
James, the strippers will be hurt for sure and many of those wells will be shut in. Without them, there is not much a market for those wells, so some production will be lost. The compliance costs (monitoring and providing the required information) will be very high for all producers, so some marginal production will be shut down. The important question is whether methane releases are actually something to be concerned about. I am working on an article about it. Thanks for your comments, James! Ed
Ed, the large producers the major basin players already are implementing much of NSPS Quad OOO it is not much different that the Quad O that Trump cancelled in what 2000. The new is the bounty hunting provision and applicability to older grandfathered facilities. Normally NSPS is only applicable ton new construction or major modifications. Now you look at the major players all of them have FLIR department, aerial surveys with FLIR, and find and fix teams. I have to admit in sizing VRU and they were 60,000 a battery. I saw some batteries that were leaking rich high BTU VOC gas through the vent lines and thief hatches, and they paid for themselves with more gas going down the sales line the Gas Processing Plants. Now all new Permian production has the new technology bell and whistles. The old production is being purchased for the lease and the deeper plays shale the vertical wells are plugged and all new wells are horizontal, and all new fully mechanized tank batteries. I grew up in the oil fields of Wyoming this is much different in the last 10 years. Much of the methane leaks now that you read about in the papers are from gas plant blowdowns due to maintenance. It is changing read about green completions.
I think part of the plan is to put small operations out of business, oil and gas, is just one, agriculture an other, then any small manufacturing and distribution and then we will be out poaching for our food before long.
If you have watched the M&A in Permian the last year the mom-and-Pop oil and gas operators are gone. I worked 20 years for Pioneer Natural Resources, and it appears Exxon will close in 2024 and purchase them. Much time and money consolidation tank batteries, installing VRU and directional drilling, leak detection in the Gas Plants. I see your point livestock particular cattle will take a hit you can see the discussion in the Western livestock Journal. Rice farm will get hit.
You are right about the rice farmers, many on the coast have leased to solar. Don't really blame them - the money sounds good and rice farming, all farming is hard work. Many have been duped, and their leases are being sold and resold and they have to renegotiate and get less and less money. I hear lawsuits are pending over that. With over 2 million acres slated for wind and solar installations in the near future in Texas the state will be sadly fragmented, many using the best farm land.
I have known several oil and gas operators over the years and they are long gone along with the jobs, incomes and support for local activities in local communities.