Beware of the wind drought trap that is set when subsidised wind and solar power drive out the reliable providers to the point where the grid will crash on nights when there is little or no wind.
The US was only one Democrat Administration away from catastrophic power failures because They are in the jaws of the wind drought trap and it is up to the Trump Administration to get them out.
There is a ‘frog in the saucepan’ effect taking place because conventional power retires in small steps. This does not cause noticeable problems in the early years while there remains spare capacity.
Wind droughts could have been the most important discovery in the 20th century if it had come in time to abort the mad dash to wind and solar that has cost trillions to get more expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic damage to forests and farmlands.
Australians found them after the turn of the millennium ...
I agree with that, Rafe. I've been writing about dunkleflaute for years. One is https://edireland.substack.com/p/the-texas-dunkelflaute . Here in Texas, the wind stops blowing every summer night when the sun sets, and natural gas generation is expected to show up. Luckily, it has been doing so, but natural gas generators are increasingly shutting down because they cannot compete with heavily subsidized wind and solar energy. Wind and solar subsidies must end! Thanks for the comment and restack, Rafe. Ed
First I think tax credits should go - they solve nothing and have become a huge burden.
I think ERCOT should be able to regulate what mixture they want on the grid for best performance and pricing. That's a bit naive, I will admit, but renewables have always had the option of being first in line.
SD 715 & HB 3356 might solve some of our issues - HB 3356 being heard today. Hopefully they will pass, and that would be a step towards reliability.
I think the critical minerals will eventually be an issue more than anything else, but as long as we are sourcing our solar panels and batteries from China and the modules to be assembled here (supposedly made in the US) then we will still need some Federal help to restore our grids. Minerals are more important in making critical things like cell phones, for cars.
I agree, Joanna. The PTC and ITC must go, or we will have severe market distortions for decades. The critical minerals problem was elevated over the weekend when China blocked their exports of their critical minerals. President Trump knew this problem was coming when he put Iceland in play as the US source of rare earth minerals. Unfortunately, this problem cannot be fixed quickly and easily. Great comment! Ed
I agree Ed, and the EPA 2024 Powerplant Greenhouse Gas Emissions ruling needs to be removed. I am not a remove every regulation everywhere believer, clearly we need some regulation. But that ruling was extreme in every sense of the word, and took no consideration of it's impact to the economy.
Beware of the wind drought trap that is set when subsidised wind and solar power drive out the reliable providers to the point where the grid will crash on nights when there is little or no wind.
The US was only one Democrat Administration away from catastrophic power failures because They are in the jaws of the wind drought trap and it is up to the Trump Administration to get them out.
There is a ‘frog in the saucepan’ effect taking place because conventional power retires in small steps. This does not cause noticeable problems in the early years while there remains spare capacity.
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/escaping-the-wind-drought-trap
Wind droughts could have been the most important discovery in the 20th century if it had come in time to abort the mad dash to wind and solar that has cost trillions to get more expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic damage to forests and farmlands.
Australians found them after the turn of the millennium ...
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/the-late-discovery-of-wind-droughts
https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/we-have-to-talk-about-wind-droughts
I agree with that, Rafe. I've been writing about dunkleflaute for years. One is https://edireland.substack.com/p/the-texas-dunkelflaute . Here in Texas, the wind stops blowing every summer night when the sun sets, and natural gas generation is expected to show up. Luckily, it has been doing so, but natural gas generators are increasingly shutting down because they cannot compete with heavily subsidized wind and solar energy. Wind and solar subsidies must end! Thanks for the comment and restack, Rafe. Ed
ERCOT is getting to that point.....if we aren't there already.
First I think tax credits should go - they solve nothing and have become a huge burden.
I think ERCOT should be able to regulate what mixture they want on the grid for best performance and pricing. That's a bit naive, I will admit, but renewables have always had the option of being first in line.
SD 715 & HB 3356 might solve some of our issues - HB 3356 being heard today. Hopefully they will pass, and that would be a step towards reliability.
I think the critical minerals will eventually be an issue more than anything else, but as long as we are sourcing our solar panels and batteries from China and the modules to be assembled here (supposedly made in the US) then we will still need some Federal help to restore our grids. Minerals are more important in making critical things like cell phones, for cars.
I agree, Joanna. The PTC and ITC must go, or we will have severe market distortions for decades. The critical minerals problem was elevated over the weekend when China blocked their exports of their critical minerals. President Trump knew this problem was coming when he put Iceland in play as the US source of rare earth minerals. Unfortunately, this problem cannot be fixed quickly and easily. Great comment! Ed
I agree Ed, and the EPA 2024 Powerplant Greenhouse Gas Emissions ruling needs to be removed. I am not a remove every regulation everywhere believer, clearly we need some regulation. But that ruling was extreme in every sense of the word, and took no consideration of it's impact to the economy.
Thanks for the comment, Kilovar. I always appreciate your comments. Ed