Zero chance of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, says the U.S. Energy Information Agency; ExxonMobil and OPEC agree

Fossil fuels will not be replaced anytime soon.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency, EIA, projects that global consumption of fossil fuels will increase by as much as 40% by 2050. In their “International Energy Outlook 2023,” released October 11, 2023, EIA said,

Global population growth and higher living standards push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency, resulting in increased energy emissions despite global targets of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 (emphasis added).

You read that correctly. The EIA, which is part of the U.S. Department of Energy, says world fossil fuel use will continue on its upward trajectory until at least 2050. EIA does not project beyond 2050, but its forecast shows no sign of the upward trend in fossil fuel consumption changing after 2050.

With this latest projection, EIA says that wind, solar, and other alternate energy will continue to grow, but they will not come close to replacing fossil fuels:

Clean energy sources, including wind and solar, will grow between 75% and 120% by 2050, but they will at best represent approximately half the energy supply stemming from fossil fuels by 2050.

The EIA report flies in the face of the Administration’s goals of net zero by 2050, which are described on the website of the “Office of the Federal Chief Sustainability Officer, Council on Environmental Quality:

President Biden's Executive Order 14057 on catalyzing American clean energy industries and jobs through Federal sustainability and accompanying Federal Sustainability Plan (collectively referred to as "The Federal Sustainability Plan") outlines an ambitious path to achieve net-zero emissions across Federal operations by 2050.

The “Key Actions” described on the Administration’s sustainability website are:

• Use 100% percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2030

• Achieve 100 percent zero-emission vehicle acquisitions by 2035

• Achieve net-zero emissions buildings by 2045

• Achieve net-zero emissions procurement by 2050

The Administration’s policy goals of eliminating fossil fuels and achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 have now been confirmed by the government’s own Energy Information Administration as totally unachievable.

On the same day EIA released its bullish forecast of continued growth in crude oil and natural gas, ExxonMobil announced they are buying its rival, Pioneer Natural Resources, for 59.5 billion dollars. Pioneer is one of the largest acreage owners in the Permian Basin, the largest oil and gas field in the U.S., and one of the most significant in the world.

This deal will double ExxonMobil’s presence in this very productive oil and gas region. Karr Ingham with the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers said:

If the Permian Basin were its own country, it would be among the top five oil producers in the world.

We just tend to look past this how important this little part of Texas is down there. The production increase is spectacular.

ExxonMobil’s CEO, Darren Woods, seemed to agree with EIA’s bullish outlook for fossil fuel consumption in an interview with CNBC:

I think fossil fuels, as the world looks to transition and find lower sources of affordable energy with lower emissions, fossil fuels oil and gas are going to continue to play a role over time. The rate of that is, I think, not very clear at this stage. But it will be around for a long time.

Even OPEC agrees with EIA and ExxonMobil and has increased its forecast for oil demand through the middle of the century, saying that oil consumption will climb 16% over the next two decades to reach 116 million barrels a day in 2045, about 6 million a day more than previously predicted.

OPEC’s top official even warned against abandoning fossil fuels, saying that cutting out hydrocarbons would “lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.”

My Take: The goal of eliminating fossil usage in order to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions worldwide by 2050 has proven to be unachievable. Everything in the world that humans eat, wear, or use depends on fossil fuels. Components of everything are made directly from petroleum refined products or natural gas or oil, or the transportation of the products to the end users depends on oil and gas. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar panels are all made from and depend on oil and natural gas to mine and refine their components.

Unfortunately, the fact that the goal of eliminating fossil fuels is a fool’s errand will not likely change anti-fossil fuel policies anytime soon. Rather, the reactions are likely to be to double down on the efforts to control and eliminate fossil fuels and expand the grift that propels the wind and solar industries.

The economy-killing, inflation-boosting expenditures contained in the ridiculously titled “Inflation Reduction Act” will continue unabated, and the war on coal and natural gas will intensify. Still, nothing will change the reality that fossil fuels cannot be replaced anytime soon.

Eventually, the policies that have destabilized the economy and threatened the integrity of our power grids will be forced to recognize the reality that fossil fuels cannot be eliminated and, in fact, are necessary for human flourishing and economic growth. The sooner this happens, the better.

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