Texas' natural gas-fired electricity generation neared record high in February 2025 winter storm while wind and solar failed again

In Texas, natural gas, nuclear and coal provide the base load dispatchable power generation while natural gas provides the peaking. Wind and solar cannot provide either.

According to the US Energy Information Administration report released today, March 18, 2025, Texas recorded a near record for hourly and daily natural gas-fired electricity generation in a recent winter storm. The February 19-22 storm increased electricity demand in Texas to 83,000 megawatts, close to the available capacity. There was enough spare natural gas generation that ERCOT did not call for voluntary conservation or demand reduction.

As shown in the graph above, the winter storm that hit Texas caused a near-record level of power generation on February 20, 2025. EIA said:

According to our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor, natural gas-fired electricity generation in the region increased to 48.8 gigawatts (GW) between 6:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. central time on February 20, 193% higher than the same time on February 18 (the day before the cold snap) and only 1% below the previous record set on January 16, 2024. Rising temperatures during the daylight hours on February 20 decreased electricity generation needs, which led to lower natural gas-fired generation during the daytime.

EIA also reported that while natural gas-fired power generation surged during the storm's lowest temperatures, “combined wind and solar generation decreased.” This has become a pattern in Texas’ winter storms: wind and solar fail while nuclear, coal, and natural gas provide reliable base loads and natural gas surges to satisfy the peak demand for electricity.

This happened in Texas during Winter Storm URI in 2021, which I wrote about in my Substack article titled “The Texas Power Grid Was Minutes From Collapsing in 2021 and Declaring an Emergency in 2022.” The above graphic of a helicopter spraying a wind turbine with de-icing fluid came from that article.

Interestingly, EIA no longer downplays or tries to obfuscate the facts that natural gas-fired generation always provides the dispatchable peaking capability that intermittent sources, such as wind and solar, cannot deliver in the winter or summer when Texas gets very hot and the wind stops blowing. In previous years, EIA frequently fudged their language to hide the truth, but now they state the cold, hard facts:

Electricity demand in Texas typically peaks in the summer during heat waves and in the winter during cold snaps. During peaks in electricity demand, grid operators must have dispatchable electricity generation sources available to service net electricity load, which is the generation required to meet demand after subtracting supply from intermittent sources such as wind and solar. Surges in electricity demand in the region overseen by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) are primarily supplied by natural gas-fired generation; ERCOT manages approximately 90% of the electricity load in Texas. In addition to demand surges, natural gas-fired generation rises to meet supply requirements during periods of lower wind and solar generation. In February’s cold snap, demand increased and combined wind and solar generation decreased.

My Take: President Trump and his cabinet have already had an amazing impact on EIA and other government agencies. During the previous four years, EIA tried to hide the facts that wind and solar cannot do the job of baseload power generation or peaking because they are unreliable.

Sure, on many days during the summer, wind and solar power in Texas can provide well over half of the electricity demand. However, wind and solar cause the nightly problem of near shortages around 8 PM when solar output goes to zero, forcing ERCOT to call for voluntary demand reduction. Texas has installed over 10 megawatts of battery storage in the last few years, but that has not solved the problem. I expect that Texas residents will start complaining about their rising electricity bills this summer when the high cost of battery storage becomes obvious.

Texas is executing an alternative plan. On November 27, 2023, the voters approved a plan to establish the Texas Energy Fund, which provides 3% interest loans over 20 years for new natural gas-fired generation. These generating plants are expected to start coming online in mid-2026. When this happens, expect howls from Texas residents calling for an end to preferential treatment of high-cost wind, solar, and battery storage.

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