It's official : EIA says there will be no energy transition in the U.S. by 2050

EIA says fossil fuels continue to dominate for at least the next quarter century.

According to their official website:

“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.”

The EIA’s “Energy Outlook for 2050,” released on March 16, 2023, states that they consider all relevant information related to the current and projected energy situation in the United States.

Here are some highlights of the EIA’s “Reference Case” projections for U.S. energy production and consumption from 2023 to 2050:

Total energy use: +0.2%

Natural gas consumption: -0.3%

Natural gas to liquify for export (LNG): +3.4%

Motor gasoline consumption: -0.6%

Jet fuel consumption: +1.3%

Distillate fuel consumption: -0.4%

Residual fuel oil consumption: -1.7%

Petroleum and other liquids consumption: -0.1%

Coal consumption: -3.9%

Renewable energy consumption: +3.6%

Nuclear/uranium consumption: -0.8%

Overall, EIA says that the U.S. energy situation changes very little over the next 27 years as fossil fuels continue to dominate energy production and consumption. Gasoline demand declines slightly, most likely due to increased mileage-per-gallon efficiencies, as internal combustion engines dominate and EVs remain niche vehicles.

There is a significant increase in natural gas production for LNG exports as Europe and other countries continue to increase their reliance on LNG.

The most significant changes EIA sees in the next 27 years are declining coal-fired electricity and increasing wind and solar power. Electricity generation continues to be dominated by coal, nuclear, and natural gas despite substantial federal subsidies for wind and solar. While such changes do not constitute an energy transition, they will bring significant instability to U.S. power grids, as highlighted in a recent report by PJM, the largest power grid in the U.S.

Bottom line: After the U.S. spends trillions of dollars subsidizing renewables and attempts to tax fossil fuels out of existence, it all fails to promote an energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables.

While there is no significant energy transition, there are likely to be major economic problems resulting from federal tax and spending policies which attempt to determine what should be market-determined decisions.

The good news is that the U.S. has hundreds of years of natural gas, thanks to the Shale Revolution, which can be used for increased baseload high-efficiency combined-cycle natural gas-fired electricity generation that will bring stability to our power grids.