The amount of additional renewable generation and storage necessary to replace existing coal generation, no less gas generation, is massive. And, then there is "all-electric everything".
We desperately need some folks in government with basic math skills and perhaps some engineering experience as well. ;-)
Great numbers in the article you reference, Ed. Battery storage is very expensive. I doubt that the battery storage operators on ERCOT are making money on a daily basis. When spot prices jump many hundreds of dollars when the sun sets around 8 PM, they may do OK, but that is for a short period of time every 24 hours. I expect that much of the planned battery storage will not be built. Thanks for the comment, Ed.
Right on, Ed. And even if Trump is elected in November, it might be an eye-opening winter if there are any grid-busting storms before he would take over in January.
I agree with you on that even, with the Texas Energy Fund, of which I am not a fan, I don't think the PUC needs to be the gas industry banker.
We have at least 2 - 3 years for new gas plants to appear and all we have in the meantime are renewables. I am not a fan of this expensive worthless option of BESS, which are being built like gang busters all over the state with several going on line each month. I am with you on the question of how are they are going to recoup their investment.
I know the TEF fund will double or triple over the next year. Legislators just don't seem to know how to get out of this fix they got us into. We can't grow as an industrial power house on the fantasy of wind and solar!
Trump will slow things but there is a lot already in motion that will not be stopped. I am somewhat of a realist.
Harris on the other hand will lead us down that highway to hell, don't worry about climate change- she will get us there first. We will have to kiss our energy good bye, our food, our land and right of free speech, and not to forget our guns first, so we can't fight the rest! I'm stocking up on toilet paper, before I can't afford or find it! We will need it in the coming months, also don't throw away those extra blankets. At least I have firewood for heat if needed.
Joanna, I agree with you that the PUC shouldn't have to be the banker for power generation companies, but hopefully the loan funds will help deal with the fed's attack on the integrity of US power grids. You are no doubt correct that the TEF will double or triple in the next few years but there has to be an end to the PUC being in the banking business, as you say. That being said, it will be years before the new generation will come online and the ability of the ERCOT grid to maintain its reliability is going to be a challenge. I'm with you on stocking up on firewood and blankets! Thanks as always for your great thoughts and comments. Ed
It looks like renewables will double with solar and batteries, which are in all out race to the finish mode, with over 800 battery projects listed on Ercots interconnect list. At least they don't take up the land as solar and wind, but the drive is hard and heavy here in the rural areas for both and the fight is still on. Then we have hydrogen.... no more comment on that boondoggle. Then our water is at risk and our tax dollars sinking fast!
So all in all the next few years are going to be rough, for Ercot especially, they will have to be good jugglers, hopefully they will the blackouts short!
You know, somewhere someone is saying "AI will fix this", when in reality, AI will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. There is cause for a new American Revolution here, rulers who are knowingly killing the standard of living of most Americans. Those rulers need to go.
The issue with full adoption of green energy is that there will be times when you will not be able to charge your iPhone, air condition your home, heat your home, refrigerate your food, turn on your lights,etc, etc, etc. Green power produces less power for its size than other sources and you can’t build enough because it is intermittent, meaning you can’t always get it when you want.
“1 MW of capacity in 2009 produced 4,312 MWh of electricity. In 2020, 1 MW of capacity generated 3,094 MWh, a decline of 28.3 percent.”
Vic, I don't like to be political in my posts, but unfortunately voters are faced with a binary choice in the upcoming election. I appreciate you reading and commenting, Vic. Ed
Your aim is powerful and true, Ed.
Thank you, Stephen. I really appreciate your kind words. Ed
the current renewable generation fleet is not dispatchable. Storage could theoretically make it dispatchable, but there is a massive current storage deficit. https://open.substack.com/pub/edreid/p/current-storage-deficit?r=hp9nv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The amount of additional renewable generation and storage necessary to replace existing coal generation, no less gas generation, is massive. And, then there is "all-electric everything".
We desperately need some folks in government with basic math skills and perhaps some engineering experience as well. ;-)
Great numbers in the article you reference, Ed. Battery storage is very expensive. I doubt that the battery storage operators on ERCOT are making money on a daily basis. When spot prices jump many hundreds of dollars when the sun sets around 8 PM, they may do OK, but that is for a short period of time every 24 hours. I expect that much of the planned battery storage will not be built. Thanks for the comment, Ed.
Check the posts that follow that one, with the numbers for no coal, no gas and finally "all-electric everything".
https://open.substack.com/pub/edreid/p/no-coal-storage?r=hp9nv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://open.substack.com/pub/edreid/p/no-gas-storage?r=hp9nv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://open.substack.com/pub/edreid/p/all-electric-storage?r=hp9nv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
With no coal and gas plants, they are going to need lots of storage, or lots of load shedding.
Of course, anything is possible if someone else is responsible for accomplishing it. ;-)
Right on, Ed. And even if Trump is elected in November, it might be an eye-opening winter if there are any grid-busting storms before he would take over in January.
I agree, Al. It may already be too late for some grids to avoid grid problems this winter. Ed
I agree with you on that even, with the Texas Energy Fund, of which I am not a fan, I don't think the PUC needs to be the gas industry banker.
We have at least 2 - 3 years for new gas plants to appear and all we have in the meantime are renewables. I am not a fan of this expensive worthless option of BESS, which are being built like gang busters all over the state with several going on line each month. I am with you on the question of how are they are going to recoup their investment.
I know the TEF fund will double or triple over the next year. Legislators just don't seem to know how to get out of this fix they got us into. We can't grow as an industrial power house on the fantasy of wind and solar!
Trump will slow things but there is a lot already in motion that will not be stopped. I am somewhat of a realist.
Harris on the other hand will lead us down that highway to hell, don't worry about climate change- she will get us there first. We will have to kiss our energy good bye, our food, our land and right of free speech, and not to forget our guns first, so we can't fight the rest! I'm stocking up on toilet paper, before I can't afford or find it! We will need it in the coming months, also don't throw away those extra blankets. At least I have firewood for heat if needed.
Joanna, I agree with you that the PUC shouldn't have to be the banker for power generation companies, but hopefully the loan funds will help deal with the fed's attack on the integrity of US power grids. You are no doubt correct that the TEF will double or triple in the next few years but there has to be an end to the PUC being in the banking business, as you say. That being said, it will be years before the new generation will come online and the ability of the ERCOT grid to maintain its reliability is going to be a challenge. I'm with you on stocking up on firewood and blankets! Thanks as always for your great thoughts and comments. Ed
It looks like renewables will double with solar and batteries, which are in all out race to the finish mode, with over 800 battery projects listed on Ercots interconnect list. At least they don't take up the land as solar and wind, but the drive is hard and heavy here in the rural areas for both and the fight is still on. Then we have hydrogen.... no more comment on that boondoggle. Then our water is at risk and our tax dollars sinking fast!
So all in all the next few years are going to be rough, for Ercot especially, they will have to be good jugglers, hopefully they will the blackouts short!
You know, somewhere someone is saying "AI will fix this", when in reality, AI will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. There is cause for a new American Revolution here, rulers who are knowingly killing the standard of living of most Americans. Those rulers need to go.
The issue with full adoption of green energy is that there will be times when you will not be able to charge your iPhone, air condition your home, heat your home, refrigerate your food, turn on your lights,etc, etc, etc. Green power produces less power for its size than other sources and you can’t build enough because it is intermittent, meaning you can’t always get it when you want.
“1 MW of capacity in 2009 produced 4,312 MWh of electricity. In 2020, 1 MW of capacity generated 3,094 MWh, a decline of 28.3 percent.”
Ed
You are correct but trump is not the answer!
Vic, I don't like to be political in my posts, but unfortunately voters are faced with a binary choice in the upcoming election. I appreciate you reading and commenting, Vic. Ed
Kamala and Walz are certainly not the answer!
Why not?